With MLB Opening Day kicking off Thursday, now is the time to lock in your 2025 futures bets and player props. The Los Angeles Dodgers enter as defending World Series champions and +240 favorites (risk $100 to win $240) at FanDuel Sportsbook to repeat. Meanwhile, star players like Shohei Ohtani (+145 NL MVP favorite) and Aaron Judge (+270 HR leader favorite) headline the odds board. Here’s a breakdown of the best value plays for 2025, backed by SportsLine’s proven projection model (32-17 on top run-line picks since 2023) and insights from data scientist Jake Fetner.
Top MLB Futures Picks for 2025
Victor Robles to Lead MLB in Steals (+1900)
After joining Seattle mid-2024, Robles slashed .328/.393/.467 with 30 steals in 77 games. Projected as the Mariners’ 2025 leadoff hitter, Fetner notes: “Robles’ 60-steal pace last year would’ve topped the league. At 19-1 odds, he’s a steal to finish top-five.”
Josh Naylor to Lead MLB in RBI (+5000)
Naylor’s move to Arizona’s hitter-friendly park boosts his value after a 108-RBI 2024. “Despite a lower OPS, our model has him trailing only Judge in RBI,” says Fetner. “With Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll setting the table, +5000 is a steal.”
Paul Skenes Under 3.00 ERA (+110)
The Pirates phenom dominated as a rookie (1.96 ERA, 98.8 mph fastball). “A sub-2.00 ERA last year? Plus-money on this is a no-brainer,” Fetner emphasizes.
Pitcher Props With Elite Value
Sandy Alcantara Under 4.00 ERA (-115)
Despite Miami’s struggles, Alcantara’s career 3.35 ERA and strong spring make him a rebound candidate. “A midseason trade to a contender could cement this,” Fetner predicts.
Bryce Miller Under 4.00 ERA (-105)
Miller’s 2024 breakout (2.94 ERA, 12 wins) and new splitter make him a lock. “Sub-3.00 last year? This is easy value,” says Fetner.
Bowden Francis Under 4.00 ERA (+135)
Francis rebounded late in 2024 (1.53 ERA post-August). “Ignore spring struggles—his late-season form shows upside,” Fetner advises.
Hitter Props to Target
Cody Bellinger 80+ RBI (-110)
Now a Yankee, Bellinger benefits from hitting behind Judge and Yankee Stadium’s short porch. “Projected for 92 RBI—this is a slam dunk,” Fetner states.
Spencer Arrighetti 150+ Strikeouts (+180)
Despite control issues, Arrighetti fanned 171 in 2024. “His strikeout stuff justifies the risk at +180,” Fetner explains.
Why Trust These Picks?
SportsLine’s model simulated every 2025 game 10,000 times, revealing hidden trends. Fetner’s analysis highlights undervalued odds poised to shift as Opening Day approaches. Act now to secure peak value.
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